A New Approach to Design a Robust Model Predictive Control Method using Uncertainty Estimation

Nazari, Mohammad Sadegh; Ghahremani, Nemat Allah; Mohammad Hoseini, Saeed

doi:10.22034/jast.2025.442599.1175

A New Approach to Design a Robust Model Predictive Control Method using Uncertainty Estimation

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Mohammad Sadegh Nazari ¹

Nemat Allah Ghahremani ²

Saeed Mohammad Hoseini ³

¹ Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Malek Ashtar University, Of Technology, Tehran

² Faculty of Electrical & Computer engineering, Malek Ashtar University of technology, Iran

³ Electeroceram and Electrical Engineering Department, Malek Ashtar University of Technology

10.22034/jast.2025.442599.1175

Abstract

This paper presents a robust model predictive control for the design of autopilots, specifically targeting unstable systems. These systems are highly sensitive to model uncertainties, necessitating an increase in control gain to effectively manage this sensitivity. However, such increases can jeopardize the stability margin and potentially induce system instability. To address this challenge, parameter estimation techniques are employed to enhance the robustness of the control strategy.The proposed approach consists of two main steps: first, the uncertain estimation of the input matrix, and second, the optimization over a finite horizon based on the estimated input matrix. An uncertainty matrix is derived using the Extended Kalman filter method and incorporated into the design of the predictive controller. This approach greatly enhances the system’s robustness to uncertainties. Furthermore, to handle the computational complexity associated with implementing predictive control, particularly for fast systems, the expansion of Laguerre functions is utilized. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach against traditional PID and Generalized Incremental Predictive Control (GIPC) methods, demonstrating its superior performance across various scenarios.

Keywords

Robust predictive control

Uncertainty estimation

Statically unstable system

Model uncertainty

Extended Kalman filter

Subjects

Flight Mechanics Stability & Contorl

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